Is This The Year The Kentucky Derby Winner Will Also Be A Triple Crown Champion?

March 21, 2008

Hopeful owners, trainers, and jockeys are sending horses to prep races and hoping that their 2008 Kentucky Derby odds will be good. Handicappers, bettors, and fans in general are watching the prep races to see who is most likely to take the 134th Run For the Roses. And every year it’s in the back of my mind, “will this year be the year I see my first Triple Crown champion?”

There are several horses I already have my eye on and will be watching hopefully at the 2008 Kentucky Derby on May 3. War Pass and Pyro have been two of the most talked about horses leading up to the Derby so far, exchanging places as the current favorite. I’m usually all for going for the underdog, but after watching these two and several of the other contenders win races on Youtube.com, none of them have the same spark that these two front runners do.

War Pass
War Pass’s distant parentage includes thoroughbred greats Bold Ruler, Nasrullah, Miss Disco, and War Admiral. He was a two-year-old champion, winning every race in which he started including the prestigious Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He was given the Eclipse Award as an outstanding two-year-old in 2007.

War Pass has early speed; in most of his races he’s gone straight to the front and stayed there, winning by several lengths. However, he came in last place in his most recent Tampa Bay stakes after running a mild fever early in the week and getting jostled out of the gate.

War Pass winning the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile


Pyro
Pyro is a great-grandson of Seattle Slew, and his parentage includes Secretariat, Native Dancer, and Bold Ruler (obviously). He’s got three first place finishes, two seconds, and a third. He came in a close second to War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, and if he’d had a little more time he may have just won it.

Pyro has an impressive burst of speed. Typically stalking the entire field from dead last, Pyro finds holes that don’t exist and consistently rockets his way to the front in the homestretch.

Pyro winning the Risen Star Stakes


Visionaire
If any horse in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field upsets the current favorite, Pyro, I want it to be Visionaire. No matter what, I will always root for trainer Michael Matz above all others. Many in horse racing know him as Barbaro’s trainer, but I know him the Olympian show jumping rider. I competed in an A-rated hunter/jumper show 10 years ago and saw him ride in person. Our groom even knew him personally. So, I’m relatively attached to the show-jumper turned race horse trainer.

Back a few generations in his pedigree, Visionaire has a Secretariat connection and a whole lot of Bold Ruler. He’s got three firsts, a second, and a third. He came from behind to win the Gotham Stakes in a photo finish. If he’s in top shape, the Florida Derby will be his final prep, like Barbaro before him.

Visionaire winning the Gotham Stakes


My Bet For the Kentucky Derby
Of all three of my top horses to watch, I’m definitely rooting for Pyro. He’s tough, and is adept at getting out of tight spots at the back of the field. And then there’s that burning speed that propels him to the front down the homestretch. I think the extra length of the Kentucky Derby (most of their races to date have been a mile and a sixteenth or less) will give Pyro the edge over the front-running War Pass. This mile and quarter race will likely give Pyro enough time to edge out War Pass at the end.

If War Pass wants to take it, it’s going to be essential that he gets out of the gate cleanly and quickly and goes straight the front. He may have that early speed, but he doesn’t seem to be able to handle a little bit of jostling.

Since I can’t go to the Kentucky Derby to watch these amazing athletes run in person, I won’t be able to put down my big $5-10 bet on Pyro. (Last fall I went to a small area track with some friends, and we had a blast checking out the horses in the paddock and putting down a dollar or two on our favorites). Fortunately, for those of us who can’t go ourselves but would like to put a little monetary faith in our favorites, there are sites like Bodog that allow you to bet online. Even if you aren’t into betting, be sure to watch their site for 2008 Kentucky Derby Odds. Their experts are watching the Derby hopefuls in their prep races and giving great analyses of the horses as well as their top picks for the next Kentucky Derby Winner and potential Triple Crown champion.

So, be sure to tune in to the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3!

Posted in Horse Racing, Jackie's Thoughts, Recommendations