2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders

April 30, 2008

At 6:04 pm this Saturday, 21 of the top 3-year-old Thoroughbreds will step into the gate at Churchill Downs for the running of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. People in big, wild hats will watch from the sidelines and infield clutching their betting tickets and cheering on their favorites. Millions around the world will tune in their TVs for one of horse racings biggest events.

But only one horse will reign supreme in the Run for the Roses. The rest will be forgotten.

The 21 contenders are coming off wins and losses, with lots of experience and little experience, as leaders and closers, from good and bad workouts. Sure there are the favorites. But really, when it comes to a horse race it can be any equine’s day.

Out of the Running
Early Derby favorite and winner of the 2007 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, War Pass has dropped out of the running after suffering a small fracture to his left front sesamoid (ankle). He was a front-running powerhouse as a 2-year-old, but has struggled in his three 2008 starts. War Pass was coming back to form, and would have been one to watch if he was still in contention.

Competitors that looked strong early one but have since dropped out also include Atoned, El Gato Malo, Majestic Warrior, and Tomcito.

The Current Favorites
After coming off an impressive win in the prestigious Grade 1 Florida Derby, the undefeated (in three starts) Big Brown is arguably the current Kentucky Derby favorite. He went straight to lead in the Florida Derby, held it the whole race, and won it going away. And he made it look easy. Big Brown may be inexperienced, but he’s got early speed and natural ability on his side.

Colonel John is another horse race afficianados have had their eyes on these last few months. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby has placed in the top two in all six of his starts. His workouts have been good since that last race, and he seems to be in top form going into the KY Derby. Historically, any horse that runs well in the Santa Anita Derby puts in a good run in the Kentucky Derby as well.

Pyro was an early Derby favorite, but many have misgivings after his poor showing (ok, he came in 10th) in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. This was certainly disappointing for the horse who has placed in the top three in all of his other races, and I’m hoping it was just a bump in the road. I love Pyro because of his gutsy finishes. He consistently pulls impressive come-from-behind wins where he’s trailing the pack and then blows by the leaders to win it going away. He’s either going to shine in the Kentucky Derby or completely blow it. He comes to the 134th Derby as the most experienced horse and also the one with the most purse winnings.

The Long Shot
Z Humor comes to the Kentucky Derby with some decent placings, but only has two wins in eight starts, and neither were in graded races. He has some raw potential, but hasn’t proven that he can compete with this class of competition.

Horses to Watch
Tale of Ekati is coming off a win in the Wood Memorial, but may be at a slight disadvantage after jockey Edgar Prado “jumped saddle” to take a ride on Adriano. He consistently places in the money, winning three of his six starts. He stalked War Pass just off the fast pace in the Wood Memorial, and pulled in front to win by half a length just in the nick of time. A clean break is key for Tale of Ekati’s successful run.

Monba, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, is bred to handle the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. He stayed competitive throughout the Blue Grass and came out on top after a stretch-long duel. He may be a bit of a wild card, seeing as he had an incredibly poor showing in the Fountain of Youth race earlier this year.

Gayego seems to be peaking at just the right time coming off a win in the Arkansas Derby. He likes to stalk the leaders just off the pace, which could put him in a position to take the Kentucky Derby since quite a few contenders will be vying for the early lead and running themselves out. His pedigree doesn’t brand him as much of a contender in this big race, but his performance so far says otherwise.

Adriano is coming off a win in the Lane’s End stakes. He’s not in many people’s top ten lists, but could be the sleeper here. The most convincing testament to his talent is that top jockey Edgar Prado, who won the Derby with Barbaro in 2006, ditched rides on other horses to get in Adriano’s saddle.

Court Vision had a good run in the Wood Memorial and seems to peaking at the right time. He’s had some lightning workouts over the track at Churchill Downs recently.

Visionaire’s best win was the Gotham Stakes in March, and he’s coming off a decent rally in the Blue Grass Stakes. He may be a heart favorite as a trainee of Michael Matz, who also trained Barbaro. (He’s my favorite trainer because he started off as a show jumping rider and trainer and brings some unique methods to racing). Visionaire is a strong closer, which is a major plus in the Kentucky Derby.

Eight Belles is the only filly in the Derby this year, and she is attempting to be the fourth filly ever to win this race. She’s undefeated in four races in 2008, dominating other fillies, and is coming off a win in the Fantasy Stakes. Along with Pyro and Visionaire, I’ll be rooting for her as a sentimental favorite and underdog.

Other Kentucky Derby Hopefuls
The rest of the field for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby includes:

• Anak Natal
• Behindatthebar
• Big Truck
• Bob Black Jack
• Cool Coal Man
• Cowboy Cal
• Denis of Cork
• Recapturetheglory
• Smooth Air

Tune In To NBC On Saturday
Coverage of the 134th Kentucky Derby will begin at 4 pm (EST time) on NBC. Post time is 6:04 pm.

Posted in Horse Racing, Recommendations