How Do You Pick A Kentucky Derby Favorite?

It’s 17 days until the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby and the internet is afflutter with discussion on which horses will be in the field, who the favorite will be, and who is going home with the roses. There are videos galore, contradictory predictions, and Twittering horses and jockeys. It’s a whole new world of research material for choosing which of the 20 Derby contenders to support.

But for me, nothing beats the post parade for finding the horse I like best.

I can read win histories, look at bloodlines, and compare workout times and never get the same impression as watching a gleaming thoroughbred stride across the track.

I watch their faces. Are they alert? Are they aware and accepting of their surroundings? Are they too crazy to focus on the job at hand? Do they show a spark that indicates a lot of heart and grit?

I watch their legs. Is there energy in their step? Are their strides long and even?

I watch their bodies. Are they fit? Do they look coiled, ready to spring when released? Are they pretty?

I get more from a watching a horse move in the post parade of 20 horses than in hours of reading about them and watching video footage of past races online.

It’s even easier to tell once they start running. It always seems like there’s that one horse who is striding easily like they are out for a walk in the park, but hangs with the frontrunners. It’s the horse who makes it look easy, who never looks like he even has to try. Big Brown looked like that last year. Secretariat looked like that.

Ultimately, I won’t make up my mind about my Kentucky Derby pick until I see all of the horses on race day. But that won’t stop me from looking at the Kentucky Derby odds, watching videos of the prep races, and finding trainers, owners, and jockeys with integrity to support.

Kentucky Derby Horses To Watch

Three Derby contenders seem to be gracing all of the top 10 lists right now. With multiple wins in Kentucky Derby prep races, they appear to be peaking at the right time for the Run for the Roses.

I Want Revenge

He won the Wood Memorial in April and the Gotham Stakes in March. He’s won 3 out of 8 starts to date with earnings closing in on $775,000. The heavy favorite for the Wood Memorial, I Want Revenge had a bad break at the gait and trailed the field the first stretch of the race. An impressive run and a lot of heart got him back to the front to win it. This is a race worth watching, and horse who could capture my heart. Look for both I Want Revenge and Joe Talamo tweeting their experience on Twitter.

I Want Revenge Winning the 2009 Wood Memorial

Pioneerof the Nile

No, the lack of a space between “Pioneer” and “of” is not a typo. With five wins in eight starts, Pioneerof the Nile has already racked up $1,193,250 in winnings. Most recently, he won the California KY Derby prep, the Santa Anita Derby. He is the son of 2003 Derby favorite Empire Maker, who ran second to Funny Cide that year then came back for a victory in the Belmont Stakes. He doesn’t have the most explosive starts, but seems to have a long, sustained run in him.  A good ride by his jockey helped save Pioneerof the Nile from running out of gas too soon when he went to lead earlier than planned.

Pioneerof The Nile Wins 2009 Santa Anita Derby

Friesan Fire

Friesan Fire could either be the sentimental favorite or controversial starter as he is owned by Fox Hill Farms and trained by Larry Jones, same as last year’s ill-fated Eight Belles. Even if he doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby, this camp will be thrilled to have him come out in one piece. Just this year, Friesan Fire has won all three of his starts, including the Louisiana Derby in March and the Risen Star Stakes in February. He’s won four of seven starts for $570, 465 in earnings. By the time the Derby comes around, however, Friesan Fire won’t have raced for 7 weeks. Larry Jones says he is training well and isn’t concerned about the long lay-off.

Friesan Fire Wins 2009 Louisiana Derby

How do you pick your Kentucky Derby favorite?